Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 21.036498 22.957723 25.092799 27.665776 30.716133 34.261633 38.763119
2025-01-12 17.866811 20.298243 23.200538 27.001692 31.982387 38.501395 48.096677
2025-01-19 16.489721 19.367336 23.017902 28.173436 35.620664 46.684742 66.147286
2025-01-26 14.979933 17.990894 21.973644 27.912437 37.157926 52.427630 84.240126
2025-02-02 13.934238 17.050376 21.321679 28.004715 39.161409 59.660355 111.526549
2025-02-09 13.141825 16.339711 20.860851 28.247583 41.419400 68.398385 154.376816
2025-02-16 12.445047 15.677242 20.365847 28.315017 43.350677 77.550231 219.777212
2025-02-23 11.755620 14.954916 19.687150 27.944396 44.324024 85.115847 309.704235
2025-03-02 11.246790 14.449120 19.280174 27.964203 46.090611 96.177167 513.089755
2025-03-09 10.753655 13.925462 18.787702 27.745662 47.277683 106.659142 951.829429
2025-03-16 10.301238 13.429873 18.292235 27.444846 48.198644 117.353283 2408.699289
2025-03-23 9.903963 12.991865 17.851988 27.185907 49.162659 129.618352 40276.833412
2025-03-30 9.547245 12.600441 17.466667 27.003325 50.349899 145.244547 NaN
2025-04-06 9.144912 12.115683 16.888206 26.362875 50.155993 154.171348 NaN
2025-04-13 9.055825 12.119975 17.147846 27.486378 55.377585 208.539467 NaN
2025-04-20 8.766213 11.785277 16.786275 27.235397 56.396256 237.381931 NaN
2025-04-27 8.547320 11.553481 16.590530 27.323676 58.584472 288.930385 NaN
2025-05-04 8.363784 11.369423 16.466461 27.556540 61.407236 371.213455 NaN
2025-05-11 8.170881 11.159846 16.280135 27.621165 63.697556 476.851462 NaN
2025-05-18 7.938428 10.873798 15.933648 27.265612 64.273271 563.855000 NaN
2025-05-25 7.766136 10.681258 15.750570 27.284606 66.426321 767.173169 NaN
2025-06-01 7.577554 10.453245 15.486609 27.074901 67.573348 1011.284892 NaN
2025-06-08 7.390957 10.221449 15.202768 26.786179 68.304809 1343.321400 NaN